“And yes… I really do like reading The Squiz to keep up to date with what’s happening in our world today!”

And while I was reading it this morning, I found myself thinking: If this affects families, therapists, educators — and especially our neurodivergent kids — we need to talk about it.

Because one of the biggest changes in years is coming to the NDIS, and it’s set to reshape access to early supports. The Albanese Government has announced a major NDIS reset, with a new early-intervention program called Thriving Kids becoming the pathway for thousands of young children who would previously have entered the scheme.

So in today’s DEO blog, here’s a clear, family-friendly breakdown of what’s happening — with full credit to The Squiz / Squiz the Shortcut for their excellent reporting that informed this summary.

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🟣 Quick Highlights Summary

• The NDIS has grown far beyond its original scope — with scope creep, ballooning costs, and participation nearly double what was predicted.

• Autism is the fastest-growing diagnosis within the scheme, representing around 40% of all participants — many with mild or early developmental needs.

• The Federal Government says the NDIS must return to its original purpose: supporting people with permanent and significant disability.

• To achieve this, thousands of children with mild autism or developmental delay will shift to a new early-intervention program called Thriving Kids.

• Thriving Kids will be delivered through state health and education systems, not the NDIS.

• The rollout has caused anxiety among families and pushback from states, who say they were not prepared for the funding implications.

• The government says no child will abruptly lose support — but details are still being developed, and families are understandably nervous.

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🟦 So What’s the Issue With the NDIS?

To put it simply:
The NDIS has become a juggernaut — far larger, more expensive, and broader than originally designed.

When it was costed in 2013, the Productivity Commission expected around 410,000 participants by now.

Instead, there are 739,000, and climbing.

It was expected to cost $22 billion per year. It’s now heading towards $50 billion, and could reach $125 billion by 2034 if nothing changes.

The cause?
Scope creep.
The boundaries of what the NDIS covers have expanded, especially for children with mild and emerging developmental concerns.

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🟦 A Quick Look Back: What Was the NDIS Designed to Do?

Launched in 2013, the NDIS was intended to provide individualised, long-term support to Australians with permanent and significant disability.

Before that, disability support was a postcode lottery — underfunded, inconsistent, and inequitable. The NDIS replaced that patchwork system and has changed lives through:

• home modifications

• support workers

• mobility equipment

• therapies

• individual tailored plans

But rapid growth has stretched the scheme far beyond its initial purpose.

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🟦 Why Autism is Central to the Changes

Autism now represents 40% of all NDIS participants — with many of those being children with mild or early needs.

Autism is a spectrum, ranging from profound disability to children who simply need help with communication, learning, sensory regulation, or behaviour.

Because mainstream supports (schools, local health services) have been underfunded, families were often told the NDIS was the only way to access help — so naturally, they applied.

The result: the NDIS became a “catch-all” for developmental needs, not just disability.

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🟦 What’s the Government Planning to Do?

To rein in costs and realign the NDIS with its original purpose, the government will:

• limit who qualifies for the scheme

• reduce scheme growth from 10% to 8%, with a target of 5–6%

• and shift thousands of children with mild developmental needs into a new early-intervention program instead.

This is where Thriving Kids comes in.

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🟦 Introducing: Thriving Kids

Thriving Kids is a new early-intervention pathway for children aged 8 and under with:

• mild autism

• developmental delays

• emerging or early developmental concerns

It is still being designed, but the intent is to provide earlier, community-based support without entering the NDIS.

What it could look like in practice:

• referrals via GPs, schools, preschools, or childcare

• access to speech therapy, OT, behavioural supports

• multidisciplinary early intervention

• coordinated local care delivered through state systems

The rollout is expected to begin July next year, with a full launch by mid-2027.

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🟦 The Rollout… Has Not Been Smooth

When the Thriving Kids announcement landed:

• Parents were blindsided

• State and territory governments said they weren’t properly briefed

• Several Premiers (QLD, NSW, VIC) pushed back on being expected to co-fund the program

• Families expressed fear about losing their children's NDIS-funded therapy

• Autism organisations supported the idea in principle but warned of potential gaps in support

• A parliamentary inquiry heard concerns about children being left in limbo

The Federal Government says they’ve been in talks with states for two years — but the backlash suggests communication hasn’t landed well.

Minister Mark Butler has repeatedly said:
“No one will be cut off overnight.”

But families remain wary.

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🟦 What Does This Mean for Families?

Here’s what we know for sure:

• Current NDIS plans continue — nothing stops immediately.

• Future applicants may be redirected into Thriving Kids rather than onto the NDIS.

• Support pathways will change, but the exact details are still being designed.

• There may be a transition period where systems need to catch up — and that’s what most families are anxious about.

At DEO, our commitment is to keep families informed, supported, and connected to reliable updates as this unfolds.

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🔗 Want to read the full Squiz Shortcut?

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